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BacktestQuick Hits · Sunday Early results

☀️ Sunday Early Results (Backtest) — Week 1

🧪 Backtest. Replayed with today's rules on point-in-time data (last pregame prices); this edition was not posted live. Not replayable for these weeks: the DraftKings line check and injury / market-move notes.

Our free picks went 89% (8 of 9) in the Sunday Early window.

✅ Free picks

  • ✅ Dalton Kincaid (BUF) 25+ receiving yards (-223) — finished with 130 receiving yards
  • ✅ Trevor Lawrence (JAX) 1+ passing TDs (-456) — finished with 4 passing TDs
  • ✅ Pat Freiermuth (PIT) 2+ catches (-376) — finished with 5 catches
  • ✅ Darren Waller (CAR) 15+ receiving yards (-117) — finished with 28 receiving yards
  • ✅ Mason Taylor (NYJ) 2+ catches (-245) — finished with 2 catches
  • ✅ Darnell Washington (PIT) 15+ receiving yards (-108) — finished with 18 receiving yards
  • ❌ Jahmyr Gibbs (DET) under 100 rushing yards (-194) — finished with 156 rushing yards
  • ✅ Josh Allen (BUF) 1+ passing TDs (-300) — finished with 2 passing TDs
  • ✅ Juwan Johnson (NO) 40+ receiving yards (-122) — finished with 54 receiving yards

🔒 Members picks, revealed

8 of 15 for the members-only picks. EV plays and TDs: 4 of 4, +2.59 units (judged in units, not hit rate).

  • ✅ Chase Brown (CIN) to score a TD (anytime) (-113) — scored · +0.83u
  • ✅ Derrick Henry (BAL) to score a TD (anytime) (-144) — scored · +0.65u
  • ✅ Jahmyr Gibbs (DET) to score a TD (anytime) (-213) — scored · +0.44u
  • ✅ Jonathan Taylor (IND) to score a TD (anytime) (-138) — scored · +0.67u
  • ❌ Brian Robinson (ATL) under 18.5 rushing yards (-110) — finished with 31 rushing yards
  • ❌ Cade Otton (TB) over 31.5 receiving yards (-110) — finished with 26 receiving yards
  • ✅ Chris Rodriguez Jr. (JAX) under 37.5 rushing yards (-110) — finished with 23 rushing yards
  • ❌ Dalton Schultz (HOU) under 3.5 catches (-110) — finished with 4 catches · 😬 1 over
  • ✅ Derrick Henry (BAL) over 77.5 rushing yards (-110) — finished with 144 rushing yards
  • ❌ Jakobi Meyers (JAX) under 35.5 receiving yards (-110) — finished with 40 receiving yards
  • ❌ Jaylen Warren (PIT) under 42.5 rushing yards (-110) — finished with 46 rushing yards
  • ❌ Kayshon Boutte (HOU) over 1.5 catches (-110) — finished with 1 catch · 😬 1 short
  • ✅ Kyle Pitts (ATL) under 4.5 catches (-110) — finished with 0 catches
  • ❌ Kyle Pitts (ATL) over 37.5 receiving yards (-110) — finished with 0 receiving yards
  • ✅ Rico Dowdle (PIT) under 44.5 rushing yards (-110) — finished with 15 rushing yards

🎲 All-Access picks, revealed

5 of 6 for the All-Access-only picks.

  • ❌ Emeka Egbuka (TB) under 5 catches (-117) — finished with 5 catches · -1.00u · 😬 1 over
  • ✅ CHI moneyline (-166) — final CHI 59, CAR 37
  • ✅ PIT -3.5 — final ATL 13, PIT 20
  • ✅ BUF +1.5 — final BUF 36, HOU 31
  • ✅ JAX -7.5 — final CLE 10, JAX 34
  • ✅ NYJ +2.5 — final NYJ 23, TEN 10

😬 So close

3 picks lost by a hair:

  • Emeka Egbuka (TB) under 5 catches · All-Access — needed 4 or fewer, got 5: 1 catch over
  • Kayshon Boutte (HOU) over 1.5 catches · Members — needed 2, got 1: 1 catch short
  • Dalton Schultz (HOU) under 3.5 catches · Members — needed 3 or fewer, got 4: 1 catch over

Graded the morning after at Kalshi's official settlement or the box score (props at the book's line) and the final score (game picks), at the price we posted. The full weekly recap with streaks and season records posts Tuesday. Full record