🧪 NFL Quick Hits Recap (Backtest) — Week 1
🧪 Backtest. Replayed with today's rules on point-in-time data (last pregame prices); this edition was not posted live. Not replayable for these weeks: the DraftKings line check and injury / market-move notes.
Our free picks went 77% (10 of 13) this week.
| This week | Season | |
|---|---|---|
| ✅ Free picks | 10 of 13 | 39 of 53 |
| 🔒 Members props (incl. free) | 21 of 36 | 90 of 141 |
| 🏈 Anytime TDs | 7 of 8 | 17 of 20 |
| 🎲 Premium unders | 3 of 5 | 11 of 15 |
| 🎲 High-confidence spread picks | 5 of 6 | 12 of 16 |
| 🎲 Strong moneylines / spreads | 1 of 1 | 4 of 4 |
🔥 Hits
- CeeDee Lamb under 7 catches (-150) — finished with 5 catches 🎲
- Michael Mayer under 40 receiving yards (+108) — finished with 32 receiving yards 🎲
- Terrance Ferguson under 60 receiving yards (-614) — finished with 0 receiving yards 🎲
- Trey McBride 50+ receiving yards (-138) — finished with 95 receiving yards
- Pat Freiermuth 2+ catches (-376) — finished with 5 catches
- Darnell Washington 15+ receiving yards (-108) — finished with 18 receiving yards
- Dalton Kincaid 25+ receiving yards (-223) — finished with 130 receiving yards
- Josh Allen 1+ passing TDs (-300) — finished with 2 passing TDs
- Darren Waller 15+ receiving yards (-117) — finished with 28 receiving yards
- Trevor Lawrence 1+ passing TDs (-456) — finished with 4 passing TDs
- Hunter Henry 25+ receiving yards (-178) — finished with 26 receiving yards
- Juwan Johnson 40+ receiving yards (-122) — finished with 54 receiving yards
- Mason Taylor 2+ catches (-245) — finished with 2 catches
- Omarion Hampton to score a TD (anytime) (-133) 🔒
- Omarion Hampton under 70.5 rushing yards (-110) — finished with 43 rushing yards 🔒
- Kyle Pitts under 4.5 catches (-110) — finished with 0 catches 🔒
- Rico Dowdle under 44.5 rushing yards (-110) — finished with 15 rushing yards 🔒
- Derrick Henry to score a TD (anytime) (-144) 🔒
- Jonathan Taylor to score a TD (anytime) (-138) 🔒
- Derrick Henry over 77.5 rushing yards (-110) — finished with 144 rushing yards 🔒
- Chris Rodriguez Jr. under 37.5 rushing yards (-110) — finished with 23 rushing yards 🔒
- Javonte Williams to score a TD (anytime) (-117) 🔒
- Dak Prescott under 261.5 passing yards (-110) — finished with 175 passing yards 🔒
- Javonte Williams under 71.5 rushing yards (-110) — finished with 41 rushing yards 🔒
- Kenneth Walker III over 62.5 rushing yards (-110) — finished with 173 rushing yards 🔒
- Jack Bech over 1.5 catches (-110) — finished with 3 catches 🔒
- Jahmyr Gibbs to score a TD (anytime) (-213) 🔒
- Kyren Williams to score a TD (anytime) (-108) 🔒
- Jordan Whittington over 0.5 catches (-110) — finished with 1 catch 🔒
- Chase Brown to score a TD (anytime) (-113) 🔒
- Jayden Daniels under 198.5 passing yards (-110) — finished with 164 passing yards 🔒
🚀 Above and beyond
- Dalton Kincaid: we said 25+, he doubled it with 130 receiving yards
- Kenneth Walker III: we said 62.5+, he cleared the 110+ stretch with 173 rushing yards
- Derrick Henry: we said 77.5+, he cleared the 90+ stretch with 144 rushing yards
😬 So close
4 picks lost by a hair:
- Emeka Egbuka (TB) under 5 catches · All-Access — needed 4 or fewer, got 5: 1 catch over
- Kayshon Boutte (HOU) over 1.5 catches · Members — needed 2, got 1: 1 catch short
- Dalton Schultz (HOU) under 3.5 catches · Members — needed 3 or fewer, got 4: 1 catch over
- PHI -4.5 · All-Access — final WAS 22, PHI 24: missed the cover by 2.5
🏟️ Game picks (All-Access)
- ✅ CHI moneyline (-166) — final CHI 59, CAR 37
- ✅ PIT -3.5 — final ATL 13, PIT 20
- ✅ BUF +1.5 — final BUF 36, HOU 31
- ❌ PHI -4.5 — final WAS 22, PHI 24 · 😬 missed the cover by 2.5
- ✅ JAX -7.5 — final CLE 10, JAX 34
- ✅ NYJ +2.5 — final NYJ 23, TEN 10
- ✅ ARI +10.5 — final ARI 26, LAC 14
Every pick, wins and losses, at the price we posted. Full record: rrsalgo.com/nfl/record/