NFL Picks Recap, Week 5 2026

Our free picks went 67% (18 of 27) this week.

	This week	Season
✅ Free picks	18 of 27	31 of 42
🔒 Members props (incl. free)	45 of 75	88 of 146
🏈 Anytime TDs	3 of 5	10 of 12
🎲 Premium unders	2 of 4	8 of 11
🎲 High-confidence spread picks	1 of 3	5 of 8
🎲 Strong moneylines / spreads	0 of 0	0 of 1

💰 EV plays: 0 of 1, -1.00 units at the posted prices. These are value plays: judged in units, not hit rate.

🔥 Hits

Dalton Kincaid UNDER 55.5 receiving yards (-110) — finished with 7 receiving yards 🎲
Khalil Shakir UNDER 4.5 catches (-125) — finished with 3 catches 🎲
Kyle Pitts Sr. 25+ receiving yards (+104) — finished with 42 receiving yards
Bijan Robinson 60+ rushing yards (-335) — finished with 86 rushing yards
Derrick Henry 60+ rushing yards (-270) — finished with 102 rushing yards
Kyle Pitts 2+ catches (-223) — finished with 5 catches
Tyler Higbee 2+ catches (-270) — finished with 5 catches
James Cook III 60+ rushing yards (-186) — finished with 111 rushing yards
Rome Odunze 25+ receiving yards (-245) — finished with 40 receiving yards
Ollie Gordon II 30+ rushing yards (-233) — finished with 88 rushing yards
Cam Ward 150+ passing yards (-285) — finished with 170 passing yards
Daniel Jones 200+ passing yards (-127) — finished with 267 passing yards
Kirk Cousins 1+ passing TDs (-400) — finished with 1 passing TD
Drake Maye 200+ passing yards (-194) — finished with 374 passing yards
Juwan Johnson 3+ catches (-335) — finished with 4 catches
Cam Skattebo 40+ rushing yards (-257) — finished with 59 rushing yards
Brenton Strange 25+ receiving yards (-163) — finished with 68 receiving yards
Jalen Hurts 150+ passing yards (-270) — finished with 220 passing yards
Trevor Lawrence 200+ passing yards (-194) — finished with 331 passing yards
Cade Otton 25+ receiving yards (-144) — finished with 25 receiving yards
Derrick Henry to score a TD (anytime) (-127) 🔒
Rashod Bateman OVER 1.5 catches (-164) — finished with 5 catches 🔒
Derrick Henry OVER 79.5 rushing yards (-130) — finished with 102 rushing yards 🔒
Kyle Pitts OVER 2.5 catches (-110) — finished with 5 catches 🔒
Kyren Williams to score a TD (anytime) (-150) 🔒
James Cook III OVER 69.5 rushing yards (-127) — finished with 111 rushing yards 🔒
Tyler Higbee OVER 24.5 receiving yards (-110) — finished with 83 receiving yards 🔒
MarShawn Lloyd OVER 27.5 rushing yards (-128) — finished with 31 rushing yards 🔒
Ollie Gordon II OVER 41.5 rushing yards (-110) — finished with 88 rushing yards 🔒
Dalton Schultz UNDER 4.5 catches (-110) — finished with 3 catches 🔒
Carnell Tate UNDER 48.5 receiving yards (-110) — finished with 6 receiving yards 🔒
Wan'Dale Robinson OVER 33.5 receiving yards (-110) — finished with 53 receiving yards 🔒
Jaylen Warren OVER 70.5 rushing yards (-132) — finished with 101 rushing yards 🔒
Jaylen Warren OVER 94.5 rushing + receiving yards (-110) — finished with 188 rushing + receiving yards 🔒
Daniel Jones OVER 204.5 passing yards (-110) — finished with 267 passing yards 🔒
Laquon Treadwell OVER 1.5 catches (-114) — finished with 2 catches 🔒
Drake Maye OVER 229.5 passing yards (-110) — finished with 374 passing yards 🔒
Kendre Miller OVER 23.5 rushing yards (-110) — finished with 30 rushing yards 🔒
Aaron Jones Sr. OVER 71.5 rushing yards (-130) — finished with 113 rushing yards 🔒
Cam Skattebo OVER 57.5 rushing yards (-110) — finished with 59 rushing yards 🔒
Jacory Croskey-Merritt OVER 45.5 rushing yards (-110) — finished with 82 rushing yards 🔒
Malik Nabers OVER 56.5 receiving yards (-110) — finished with 121 receiving yards 🔒
Jameis Winston OVER 200.5 passing yards (-110) — finished with 326 passing yards 🔒
Bhayshul Tuten OVER 65.5 rushing yards (-110) — finished with 72 rushing yards 🔒
Trevor Lawrence OVER 225.5 passing yards (-110) — finished with 331 passing yards 🔒
Jalen Hurts OVER 190.5 passing yards (-110) — finished with 220 passing yards 🔒
Javonte Williams to score a TD (anytime) (-186) 🔒
Bucky Irving OVER 54.5 rushing yards (-110) — finished with 165 rushing yards 🔒
Emeka Egbuka OVER 34.5 receiving yards (-110) — finished with 38 receiving yards 🔒
CeeDee Lamb UNDER 84.5 receiving yards (-110) — finished with 9 receiving yards 🔒

🚀 Above and beyond

Bucky Irving: we said 54.5+, he cleared the 60+ stretch with 165 rushing yards
Emeka Egbuka: we said 34.5+, finished with 38 receiving yards, over Sleeper's 36.5 too
Brenton Strange: we said 25+, finished with 68 receiving yards, over Sleeper's 32.5 too
Bhayshul Tuten: we said 65.5+, he cleared the 70+ stretch with 72 rushing yards
Trevor Lawrence: we said 225.5+, he cleared the 250+ stretch with 331 passing yards
Jalen Hurts: we said 190.5+, he cleared the 200+ stretch with 220 passing yards
Juwan Johnson: we said 3+, he cleared the 4+ stretch with 4 catches
Rome Odunze: we said 25+, he cleared the 40+ stretch with 40 receiving yards
Cam Skattebo: we said 57.5+, finished with 59 rushing yards, over Sleeper's 58.5 too
MarShawn Lloyd: we said 27.5+, he cleared the 30+ stretch with 31 rushing yards
Ollie Gordon II: we said 41.5+, he cleared the 50+ stretch with 88 rushing yards
Jacory Croskey-Merritt: we said 45.5+, he cleared the 50+ stretch with 82 rushing yards
Kendre Miller: we said 23.5+, he cleared the 25+ stretch with 30 rushing yards
Malik Nabers: we said 56.5+, he cleared the 60+ stretch with 121 receiving yards
Wan'Dale Robinson: we said 33.5+, he cleared the 40+ stretch with 53 receiving yards
Daniel Jones: we said 204.5+, he cleared the 225+ stretch with 267 passing yards
Jameis Winston: we said 200.5+, he cleared the 225+ stretch with 326 passing yards
Drake Maye: we said 229.5+, he cleared the 250+ stretch with 374 passing yards
Aaron Jones Sr.: we said 71.5+, he cleared the 80+ stretch with 113 rushing yards
Ollie Gordon II: we said 30+, he doubled it with 88 rushing yards
Rashod Bateman: we said 1.5+, he cleared the 3+ stretch with 5 catches
Derrick Henry: we said 79.5+, he cleared the 90+ stretch with 102 rushing yards
Tyler Higbee: we said 2+, he cleared the 3+ stretch with 5 catches
James Cook III: we said 69.5+, he cleared the 77+ stretch with 111 rushing yards
Tyler Higbee: we said 24.5+, finished with 83 receiving yards, over Sleeper's 25.5 too

🔁 Repeat calls

❌ LA: on our list 2 games running, 1 of 2 calls hit
✅ Aaron Jones Sr.: on our list 2 games running, 2 of 2 calls hit
✅ Bhayshul Tuten: on our list 2 games running, 2 of 2 calls hit
➖ Bijan Robinson: on our list 2 games running, 2 of 4 calls hit
❌ Brian Robinson: on our list 2 games running, 1 of 2 calls hit
❌ Brock Bowers: on our list 2 games running, 0 of 2 calls hit
✅ Bucky Irving: on our list 2 games running, 2 of 2 calls hit
✅ Carnell Tate: on our list 2 games running, 1 of 2 calls hit
✅ Dalton Kincaid: on our list 2 games running, 2 of 2 calls hit
✅ Dalton Schultz: on our list 2 games running, 2 of 2 calls hit
❌ Darnell Washington: on our list 2 games running, 1 of 3 calls hit
❌ David Montgomery: on our list 2 games running, 0 of 3 calls hit
✅ Derrick Henry: on our list 2 games running, 4 of 5 calls hit
✅ Drake Maye: on our list 2 games running, 2 of 3 calls hit
✅ Jacory Croskey-Merritt: on our list 2 games running, 1 of 2 calls hit
✅ James Cook III: on our list 2 games running, 3 of 4 calls hit
✅ Jaylen Warren: on our list 2 games running, 2 of 3 calls hit
❌ Jonathan Taylor: on our list 2 games running, 1 of 3 calls hit
➖ Juwan Johnson: on our list 2 games running, 2 of 4 calls hit
✅ Kendre Miller: on our list 2 games running, 1 of 2 calls hit
✅ Kirk Cousins: on our list 2 games running, 2 of 2 calls hit
✅ Kyle Pitts Sr.: on our list 2 games running, 4 of 4 calls hit
➖ Kyren Williams: on our list 2 games running, 2 of 5 calls hit
❌ Quinshon Judkins: on our list 2 games running, 1 of 3 calls hit
❌ TreVeyon Henderson: on our list 2 games running, 1 of 2 calls hit
✅ Trevor Lawrence: on our list 2 games running, 3 of 3 calls hit
✅ Wan'Dale Robinson: on our list 2 games running, 2 of 2 calls hit

😬 So close

4 picks lost by a hair:

Rachaad White (WAS) 20+ rushing yards · Free — needed 20, got 18: 2 rushing yards short
Darnell Washington (PIT) 15+ receiving yards · Free — needed 15, got 12: 3 receiving yards short
Bijan Robinson (ATL) OVER 86.5 rushing yards · Members — needed 87, got 86: 1 rushing yard short
Drake London (ATL) UNDER 6.5 catches · All-Access — needed 6 or fewer, got 7: 1 catch over

🏟️ Game picks (All-Access)

❌ JAX -6.5 — final PHI 17, JAX 19
✅ GB +2.5 — final CHI 7, GB 31
❌ LA -2.5 — final BUF 37, LA 34

Every pick, wins and losses, at the price we posted. Full record: rrsalgo.com/nfl/record/