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🌤️ Sunday Late Results (Backtest) — Week 3

🧪 Backtest. Replayed with today's rules on point-in-time data (last pregame prices); this edition was not posted live. Not replayable for these weeks: the DraftKings line check and injury / market-move notes.

Our free picks went 100% (5 of 5) in the Sunday Late window.

✅ Free picks

  • ✅ Juwan Johnson (NO) 2+ catches (-567) — finished with 8 catches
  • ✅ Brock Purdy (SF) 1+ passing TDs (-669) — finished with 4 passing TDs
  • ✅ Trey McBride (ARI) 50+ receiving yards (-223) — finished with 75 receiving yards
  • ✅ Bucky Irving (TB) 12+ carries (-317) — finished with 15 carries
  • ✅ Kirk Cousins (LV) 1+ passing TDs (-300) — finished with 3 passing TDs

🔒 Members picks, revealed

8 of 12 for the members-only picks. EV plays and TDs: 3 of 3, +1.64 units (judged in units, not hit rate).

  • ✅ Christian McCaffrey (SF) to score a TD (anytime) (-213) — scored · +0.44u
  • ✅ Derrick Henry (BAL) to score a TD (anytime) (-186) — scored · +0.50u
  • ✅ Javonte Williams (DAL) to score a TD (anytime) (-133) — scored · +0.70u
  • ❌ Baker Mayfield (TB) under 215.5 passing yards (-110) — finished with 217 passing yards · 😬 2 over
  • ❌ Brock Purdy (SF) under 16.5 rushing yards (-110) — finished with 34 rushing yards
  • ✅ Cade Otton (TB) under 3.5 catches (-110) — finished with 3 catches
  • ✅ Chris Godwin Jr. (TB) under 35.5 receiving yards (-110) — finished with 25 receiving yards
  • ❌ Derrick Henry (BAL) over 91.5 rushing yards (-110) — finished with 89 rushing yards · 😬 3 short
  • ✅ Juwan Johnson (NO) over 34.5 receiving yards (-110) — finished with 53 receiving yards
  • ✅ Kenny Gainwell (TB) under 18.5 rushing yards (-110) — finished with -4 rushing yards
  • ✅ Kyler Murray (MIN) under 21.5 rushing yards (-110) — finished with 17 rushing yards
  • ❌ Travis Etienne (NO) under 38.5 rushing yards (-110) — finished with 57 rushing yards

🎲 All-Access picks, revealed

1 of 1 for the All-Access-only picks.

  • ✅ ARI +8.5 — final ARI 30, SF 36

😬 So close

2 picks lost by a hair:

  • Baker Mayfield (TB) under 215.5 passing yards · Members — needed 215 or fewer, got 217: 2 passing yards over
  • Derrick Henry (BAL) over 91.5 rushing yards · Members — needed 92, got 89: 3 rushing yards short

Graded the morning after at Kalshi's official settlement or the box score (props at the book's line) and the final score (game picks), at the price we posted. The full weekly recap with streaks and season records posts Tuesday. Full record