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☀️ Sunday Early Results (Backtest) — Week 2

🧪 Backtest. Replayed with today's rules on point-in-time data (last pregame prices); this edition was not posted live. Not replayable for these weeks: the DraftKings line check and injury / market-move notes.

Our free picks went 62% (5 of 8) in the Sunday Early window.

✅ Free picks

  • ✅ C.J. Stroud (HOU) 15+ completions (-1567) — finished with 30 completions
  • ✅ Joe Burrow (CIN) 1+ passing TDs (-426) — finished with 2 passing TDs
  • ❌ Drake Maye (NE) 1+ passing TDs (-376) — finished with 0 passing TDs · 😬 1 short
  • ✅ Tony Pollard (TEN) 9+ carries (-456) — finished with 14 carries
  • ✅ Bucky Irving (TB) 12+ carries (-376) — finished with 17 carries
  • ✅ Carnell Tate (TEN) 25+ receiving yards (-233) — finished with 27 receiving yards
  • ❌ Tucker Kraft (GB) 40+ receiving yards (-133) — finished with 15 receiving yards
  • ❌ Kyle Pitts (ATL) 3+ catches (-186) — finished with 1 catch

🔒 Members picks, revealed

15 of 24 for the members-only picks. EV plays and TDs: 1 of 2, -0.54 units (judged in units, not hit rate).

  • ❌ D'Andre Swift (CHI) to score a TD (anytime) (-117) · -1.00u
  • ✅ Derrick Henry (BAL) to score a TD (anytime) (-203) — scored · +0.46u
  • ✅ Aaron Rodgers (PIT) under 207.5 passing yards (-110) — finished with 187 passing yards
  • ✅ Breece Hall (NYJ) under 63.5 rushing yards (-110) — finished with 29 rushing yards
  • ❌ Bucky Irving (TB) under 64.5 rushing yards (-110) — finished with 89 rushing yards
  • ✅ Caleb Williams (CHI) under 222.5 passing yards (-110) — finished with 138 passing yards
  • ✅ Cam Ward (TEN) under 185.5 passing yards (-110) — finished with 183 passing yards
  • ✅ Carson Wentz (MIN) under 213.5 passing yards (-110) — finished with 143 passing yards
  • ✅ D'Andre Swift (CHI) under 61.5 rushing yards (-110) — finished with 45 rushing yards
  • ❌ Darnell Washington (PIT) over 14.5 receiving yards (-110) — finished with 7 receiving yards
  • ✅ Darren Waller (CAR) over 15.5 receiving yards (-110) — finished with 33 receiving yards
  • ❌ Denzel Boston (CLE) under 30.5 receiving yards (-110) — finished with 95 receiving yards
  • ✅ Harold Fannin Jr. (CLE) over 33.5 receiving yards (-110) — finished with 54 receiving yards
  • ✅ Ja'Marr Chase (CIN) under 77.5 receiving yards (-110) — finished with 75 receiving yards
  • ❌ Jaylen Warren (PIT) under 40.5 rushing yards (-110) — finished with 43 rushing yards · 😬 3 over
  • ✅ Joe Burrow (CIN) under 248.5 passing yards (-110) — finished with 207 passing yards
  • ✅ Justice Hill (BAL) under 12.5 rushing yards (-110) — finished with 6 rushing yards
  • ✅ Juwan Johnson (NO) over 37.5 receiving yards (-110) — finished with 66 receiving yards
  • ❌ Kyle Monangai (CHI) under 36.5 rushing yards (-110) — finished with 47 rushing yards
  • ❌ Kyle Pitts (ATL) over 33.5 receiving yards (-110) — finished with 15 receiving yards
  • ✅ Quinshon Judkins (CLE) under 48.5 rushing yards (-110) — finished with 21 rushing yards
  • ✅ Rico Dowdle (PIT) under 32.5 rushing yards (-110) — finished with 22 rushing yards
  • ❌ TreVeyon Henderson (NE) under 33.5 rushing yards (-110) — finished with 76 rushing yards
  • ❌ Tyjae Spears (TEN) under 16.5 rushing yards (-110) — finished with 41 rushing yards

🎲 All-Access picks, revealed

4 of 5 for the All-Access-only picks.

  • ❌ Dalton Schultz (HOU) under 60 receiving yards (-257) — finished with 140 receiving yards · -1.00u
  • ✅ Colston Loveland (CHI) under 70 receiving yards (-233) — finished with 3 receiving yards · +0.40u
  • ✅ Mark Andrews (BAL) under 50 receiving yards (-138) — finished with 49 receiving yards · +0.67u
  • ✅ CAR -1.5 — final CAR 34, ATL 3
  • ✅ MIN +5.5 — final MIN 9, CHI 3

😬 So close

2 picks lost by a hair:

  • Drake Maye (NE) 1+ passing TDs · Free — needed 1, got 0: 1 passing TD short
  • Jaylen Warren (PIT) under 40.5 rushing yards · Members — needed 40 or fewer, got 43: 3 rushing yards over

Graded the morning after at Kalshi's official settlement or the box score (props at the book's line) and the final score (game picks), at the price we posted. The full weekly recap with streaks and season records posts Tuesday. Full record