The model went 62.4% (103/165) on the full card yesterday. Here's the tape.
📊 THE LEDGER
Every pick the model graded. Win or lose, it goes on the board.
| Window | Full Card | Batters | Pitchers |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yesterday | 62.4% (103/165) | 63.8% (88/138) | 55.6% (15/27) |
| This week | 68.6% (673/981) | 68.3% (534/782) | 69.8% (139/199) |
| This month | 64.5% (165/256) | 63.6% (133/209) | 68.1% (32/47) |
| This season | 69.7% (6308/9046) | 69.7% (5011/7192) | 70.0% (1297/1854) |
Batter markets (season): Hits 71.1% · Hits+Runs+RBI combo 70.9% · Runs 64.3% · Runs+RBI 62.1% · Total Bases 50.9% · Home Run 33.3% · RBI 60.0%
Pitcher markets (season): Strikeouts 72.9% · Walks 71.9% · Outs/Length 63.2%
🗞️ THE WRAP — what we saw that the line didn't
🎯 Against the grain
Bryce Elder (Atlanta Braves) to work deep into the game — and did. The matchup screamed coin-flip to the public, but the model had it flagged as a calculated dart. It cashed.
🧊 The honest miss
Jonathan Aranda (Tampa Bay Rays) was top of the board to record a hit, run, or RBI and came up empty. We don't bury these — the model's edge is built over a full season, not any single night.
⚡ The stack that paid
We leaned into a cluster of hitters drawing a soft pitching matchup — and the group hit at 62% (24 bats). Brandon Lowe led the way, exactly the spot the model loves to attack.
Grades posted every morning. Today's plays drop as lineups lock — watch for the Early / Mid / Late editions.