The model went 76.1% (134/176) on the full card yesterday. Here's the tape.
๐ THE LEDGER
Every pick the model graded. Win or lose, it goes on the board.
| Window | Full Card | Batters | Pitchers |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yesterday | 76.1% (134/176) | 74.4% (96/129) | 80.9% (38/47) |
| This week | 69.8% (706/1012) | 69.3% (557/804) | 71.6% (149/208) |
| This month | 69.2% (299/432) | 67.8% (229/338) | 74.5% (70/94) |
| This season | 69.9% (6442/9222) | 69.8% (5107/7321) | 70.2% (1335/1901) |
Batter markets (season): Hits 71.3% ยท Hits+Runs+RBI combo 71.0% ยท Runs 64.5% ยท Runs+RBI 62.5% ยท Total Bases 50.0% ยท Home Run 33.3% ยท RBI 60.0%
Pitcher markets (season): Strikeouts 73.3% ยท Walks 72.4% ยท Outs/Length 63.1%
๐๏ธ THE WRAP โ what we saw that the line didn't
๐ฏ Against the grain
Payton Tolle (Boston Red Sox) to work deep into the game โ and did. The matchup screamed coin-flip to the public, but the model had it flagged as a calculated dart. It cashed.
๐ง The honest miss
Michael Harris II (Atlanta Braves) was top of the board to record a hit, run, or RBI and came up empty. We don't bury these โ the model's edge is built over a full season, not any single night.
โก The stack that paid
We leaned into a cluster of hitters drawing a soft pitching matchup โ and the group hit at 100% (19 bats). Andy Pages led the way, exactly the spot the model loves to attack.
Grades posted every morning. Today's plays drop as lineups lock โ watch for the Early / Mid / Late editions.