The model went 82.1% (92/112) on the full card yesterday. Here's the tape.
๐ THE LEDGER
Every pick the model graded. Win or lose, it goes on the board.
| Window | Full Card | Batters | Pitchers |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yesterday | 82.1% (92/112) | 81.7% (76/93) | 84.2% (16/19) |
| This week | 70.6% (818/1158) | 69.8% (650/931) | 74.0% (168/227) |
| This month | 70.6% (818/1158) | 69.8% (650/931) | 74.0% (168/227) |
| This season | 70.0% (3809/5438) | 70.5% (3064/4348) | 68.3% (745/1090) |
Batter markets (season): Hits 74.1% ยท Hits+Runs+RBI combo 71.8% ยท Runs 61.7% ยท Runs+RBI 63.3% ยท Total Bases 58.1% ยท Home Run 26.7% ยท RBI 54.5%
Pitcher markets (season): Strikeouts 72.0% ยท Walks 65.8% ยท Outs/Length 62.0%
๐๏ธ THE WRAP โ what we saw that the line didn't
๐ฏ Against the grain
Michael King (San Diego Padres) to work deep into the game โ and did. The matchup screamed coin-flip to the public, but the model had it flagged as a calculated dart. It cashed.
๐ง The honest miss
Bryce Harper (Philadelphia Phillies) was top of the board to record a hit, run, or RBI and came up empty. We don't bury these โ the model's edge is built over a full season, not any single night.
โก The stack that paid
We leaned into a cluster of hitters drawing a soft pitching matchup โ and the group hit at 86% (21 bats). Carlos Cortes led the way, exactly the spot the model loves to attack.
Grades posted every morning. Today's plays drop as lineups lock โ watch for the Early / Mid / Late editions.